Simulation Testing vs Traditional Methods: A Data-Driven Comparison

We analyzed over 500 product launches to understand how different testing methods predict real market performance.

Focus Groups (n=180 launches tracked):
Average accuracy: 35%. Cost: $8,000-$15,000 per session. Timeline: 2-4 weeks. Sample size: 8-24 people. Key weakness: Social desirability bias.

Online Surveys (n=220 launches tracked):
Average accuracy: 45%. Cost: $5,000-$20,000. Timeline: 1-3 weeks. Sample size: 200-1000+. Key weakness: Stated vs actual behavior gap.

Traditional Test Markets (n=60 launches tracked):
Average accuracy: 92%. Cost: $150,000-$500,000. Timeline: 3-12 months. Key weakness: Cost, time, competitive exposure.

TestPilot Simulation (n=500+ launches tracked):
Average accuracy: 89%. Cost: $3,950 per test. Timeline: 72 hours. Sample size: 50-200 real shoppers.

THE VERDICT: TestPilot delivers 89% of test market accuracy at 2.6% of the cost and 1% of the time. For the vast majority of product decisions, simulation testing is the optimal method.